Abstract
This paper aims at investigating military and demographic inter-linkages in the context of the Lithuanian sustainability. The investigation combines three important economic aspects such as demographic, military and sustainable development. The authors have revealed that demographic trends should be seen as a necessary conditions for ensuring the functioning of the military sector contributes to public security and sustainable development in general. Correlation and stepwise regression analysis, also Monte Carlo forecasting method have been applied for this purpose. Research results have revealed statistically significant interrelationship between military personnel as a share of total labour force and population growth rate, population median age, total fertility rate as well as birth rate. Moreover, Monte Carlo forecasting method allowed revealing for the next 10 years a steady slight increase in armed forces personnel, stable population growth rates, a rapid aging process and a slight decline of total fertility rate. Military and demographic estimations and future projections allow government to incorporate information into planning and sustainable development policy. The insights from this research may contribute to implementing the goals of sustainable development related to eradication of poverty, inequality, social exclusion, improvement in education, well-being and employment and tackling climate change.
Highlights
Demographic trends, including population ageing, population growth, migration and urbanization have important implications for military service and sustainable development
The study of the United Nations (2019) revealed the following demographic trends: 1) the global population is still growing, but some countries are experiencing a decline in their total population; 2) all countries are experiencing population ageing; 3) the levels of population fertility and mortality have declined around the globe; 4) international migration has become an important determinant of population change
This research has supported the previous studies of the United Nations (2019) and Vasyltsiv and Tesliuk (2020), which have revealed, that the global population is still growing, but some countries are experiencing a decline in their total population, all countries are experiencing population ageing, and the levels of population fertility have declined around the globe
Summary
Demographic trends, including population ageing, population growth, migration and urbanization have important implications for military service and sustainable development. Over the period 2013–2019, the number of total military personnel in Lithuania increased by almost 87 per cent, military expenditure tripled and military expenditure as a share of real GDP grew up from 0.76 to 2.03 per cent (NATO, 2019) These military trends have been caused by growing insecurity and conflicts in the world. The study of the United Nations (2019) revealed the following demographic trends: 1) the global population is still growing, but some countries are experiencing a decline in their total population; 2) all countries are experiencing population ageing; 3) the levels of population fertility and mortality have declined around the globe; 4) international migration has become an important determinant of population change. The largest relative reduction in population size is expected in Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria and Ukraine In these countries, over the period in question the losses will make around 20 per cent (United Nations, 2019). Their needs, health and what they value can change
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