The Disaster-Fertility Nexus in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Abstract

Natural disasters, especially those resulting from climate change (climate extremes and variations), are likely to increase in frequency and intensity. There is a pressing need for research on how natural and human-made disasters affect human fertility's behavioural aspects. This chapter addresses those effects in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with its total of 48 countries. Since the mid-20th century, the world has seen a remarkable decline in the global total fertility rate (TFR), from 5.5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.49 in 2015. Eighty per cent of the world's population in 2015 lived in countries with TFRs below three children per woman; but many SSA countries were reported as exceeding 5: for example, Niger (7.29), Democratic Republic of Congo (6.2), Mali (6.15), and Chad (6.05). The decline in TFRs in SSA countries remains much slower than elsewhere, focusing the attention of those researching fertility in the context of climate change or disasters more broadly. This chapter reviews the literature on connections between disasters (natural or anthropogenic) and fertility across SSA countries. Using the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) administered by the Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and data on TFRs sourced from the World Bank, we examine trends in TFRs and natural disasters across these countries since 1960. We touch on implications of the SSA experience with HIV/AIDS for a future altered by COVID 19. These and other findings may inform research and policy directions concerned with family-planning initiatives and disaster management programs in the region.