Abstract

Migration is defined as the permanent change in an individual’s usual residence. Forecasting migration is an important requisite for population forecasts or for planning in fields that depend on the future size and structure of the population, such as economics, epidemiology, social insurance, or infrastructure. As migration is the most volatile of all demographic components, its modeling is especially difficult. International migration can be modeled and forecast very differently; users should be familiar with the flaws and strengths of these different approaches.

Highlights

  • International migration is a global phenomenon with a current estimate of 281 million people globally being counted as migrants, defined as living outside one’s country of origin, with an increasing tendency [1]

  • Issues arising from international migration differ very much between countries witnessing mostly negative net migration in comparison to those with regular positive net migration

  • We have provided an overview of approaches in migration forecasting, with a special emphasis on approaches conducted by the statistical offices

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Summary

Introduction

International migration is a global phenomenon with a current estimate of 281 million people globally being counted as migrants, defined as living outside one’s country of origin, with an increasing tendency [1]. Inflows by young migrants can be interpreted as a potential stabilizer for the age structure of the population and supply a potential labor force [4] These societies, in most cases, are affected by a demographic transition, marked by low fertility and decreasing mortality rates, which leads to aging and depopulation if not averted by immigration [5]. The present study addresses this important question, as the projections available for Germany differ considerably concerning the expected level of migration. This is, above all, due to issues of methodology, as we will demonstrate. We discuss the results of our study in the context of migration policy and conclude with an outlook

Approaches to Migration Modeling and Forecasting—A Brief Overview
Development of Cross-Border Migration in Germany after World War II
Exemplary Simulations of Migration and the Labor Market in Germany
Findings
Conclusions and Outlook
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