Microsatellite instability (MSI), mismatch repair (MMR), and tumor mutational burden (TMB) as predictive biomarkers for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) effectiveness in real-world patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

Abstract

46 Background: The KEYNOTE-177 randomized controlled trial demonstrated that mCRC patients with MSI high (MSI-H) and/or deficient MMR (dMMR) have better outcomes on first-line ICI than chemotherapy. This study aimed to evaluate MSI by next-generation sequencing (NGS) as a predictive biomarker of ICI effectiveness in real-world settings, and compare MSI (NGS), dMMR (immunohistochemistry, IHC), and TMB (10 mut/Mb cutoff) in predicting ICI outcomes. Methods: A prospectively declared statistical analysis plan compared the effectiveness of first-line treatment ICI versus chemotherapy in patients with MSI-H mCRC, and compared the predictive power of ICI outcomes associated with biomarkers in any line of therapy (LOT). Patient data was obtained by the US-based de-identified Flatiron Health-Foundation Medicine real-world mCRC clinico-genomic database (FH-FMI CGDB), originating from ~280 US cancer clinics between Jan/2011 and Dec/2021. Differences in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for a risk score generated from prognostic clinical features. The likelihood ratio test evaluated the superiority of a biomarker in anticipating outcomes. Results: Patients with MSI-H mCRC had more favorable outcomes receiving first-line ICI (n=49) than chemotherapy (n=89) for PFS (median 24.87 vs. 5.65 months, hazard ratio (HR): 0.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18-0.52, p <0.0001) and OS (median not reached (NR) vs. 24.1 months, HR: 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.88, p = 0.02). mCRC patients receiving ICI in any LOT (n=182) had favorable outcomes when MSI-H, dMMR, or TMB ≥10 (all p <0.001). MSI (NGS) and MMR (IHC) were 90% concordant. MSI reclassified six cases that were proficient (p)MMR (all with TMB >10, three with mutations in MMR genes, and 5 with BRAF mutation, consistent with MSI biology). When MSI (NGS) is added to dMMR (IHC) evaluation, there is an improvement in the prediction of TTNT (p = 0.0013), PFS (p = 0.0202), and OS (p = 0.0717), but adding MMR status to MSI did not improve explanatory power. Conclusions: MSI (NGS) robustly identifies mCRC patients with favorable outcomes on first-line ICI vs. chemotherapy, and is a nominally better predictor of ICI outcomes when compared with dMMR (IHC) alone. dMMR (IHC), MSI (NGS), and TMB have similar predictive power for ICI benefit. [Table: see text]