Methods of prediction intensity of user loads subscribers Earth stations in a satellite communication network

Abstract

There are considered the features of a satellite communication system organization on the basis of DVB-RCS standard. In order to use effectively the satellite channel capacity it is necessary to form an optimal frequency-and-time structure of a reverse channel that depends, as well, on efficiency of earth stations user load intensity forecast. The methodology of forecast of earth stations subscribers user loads by means of estimation of static and dynamic characteristics of a packet data traffic is proposed. For estimation of input flow intensity and forecast of required capacity approximation methods are used. The method uses linear and polynomial approximation models. First, the parameters of approximating equation are defined, than adequacy of approximation equations to the input information flow intensity is performed. After extrapolation of information flow intensity estimation the maximum value of input information flow intensity forecasted at the moment tk is defined.