METHODS OF CALCULATING THE PROBABLE NUMBER OF FIRE TO BE ELIMINATED BY THE GAS PROTECTION SERVICE

Abstract

The main types of operational actions of fire and rescue units during firefighting and emergency response are presented. An analysis of fires that have occurred during the last five years, which have been extinguished by units of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine with the participation of units of the gas and smoke protection service. After analyzing the statistics of the number of fires and emergencies in the city (district) over the years, a mathematical model of the dynamics of the number of fires and other emergencies. The forecast of the expected number of their occurrence is determined and the volume of work of the gas and smoke protection service for the next year is estimated, as well as the sufficiency of forces and means is determined. The most effective way to identify the main trend in the number of emergencies is analytical alignment using a mathematical expression that most accurately describes the nature of the empirical distribution of their number over the analyzed period and with which you can make predictions. To do this, the necessary mathematical distribution law is selected in the scientific search. To determine the speed and intensity of the number of fires and other emergencies over time, the following indicators were used: absolute growth, growth rate. The calculation of these indicators is based on comparing the levels of a number of dynamics. Under the level of a series of dynamics is taken each individual numerical value of the indicator, which characterizes the magnitude of the phenomenon, its size and location in chronological order. Based on the described indicators, a method of calculating the probable number of fires in the current year, which will be eliminated by the gas and smoke protection service, is proposed. An example of calculation is given: its main components are described, which should be taken into account during the calculation. The process of change and development of the occurrence and spread of fires by constructing time or time series is studied. Recommendations for building a mathematical model of the dynamics of the number of fires and other emergencies are given, the forecast of the expected number of their occurrence is determined, the volume of work of fire and rescue units for the next year is estimated.