Abstract
The article discusses the main physical and geographical factors, affecting the runoff of spring floods in the Arpa rivers catchment in the station Jermuk. Also the article discusses the development of a methodology for long-term forecasting of runoff volume of spring flood (WIV–VI) of river Arpa, station Jermuk. The study used data of water discharges of Arpa river catchment (station Jermuk), air temperature, precipitation, reserve water in snow at meteostation Jermuk. A linear correlation was also revealed between the values of the annual runoff and runoff of spring floods in Arpa river catchment, which can be used to predict the annual runoff. To predict the volume of spring flood runoff, regression method and obtained multivariate correlation dependencies. Assessment of statistical significance and stability the proposed models showed their «satisfactory» quality and the possibility of using in the practice of engineering and hydrological forecasts.
Highlights
Flood water is considered extreme and becomes a flood, if maximum water flows are formed and, high water levels are formed, at which low-lying parts of settlements, agricultural land, roads and railways are flooded, and industrial facilities are damaged [8]
Development of a methodology for long-term forecasting of flood water availability is of significant interest for water consumers and is an important task, solution thereof can help prevent economic damage and human losses, as well as regulate and manage water resources
Taking into account long-term forecasts of river flow, the most important operational decisions are made [2] related to operation of water management systems and implementation of flood control measures
Summary
Flood water is considered extreme and becomes a flood, if maximum water flows are formed and, high water levels are formed, at which low-lying parts of settlements, agricultural land, roads and railways are flooded, and industrial facilities are damaged [8]. Due to global climate change on the Earth, the number of catastrophic floods has increased, causing enormous damage. Floods cause both damage and great benefits, because due to flood reservoirs, electricity is generated, crops grow, and water is supplied to the population and industrial facilities [1]. Taking into account long-term forecasts of river flow, the most important operational decisions are made [2] related to operation of water management systems and implementation of flood control measures.
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