Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain)

Abstract

<p>Robust sub-seasonal and seasonal drought forecasts are essential for water managers and stakeholders coping with water scarcity. Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of hydrological forecasts, that is, streamflow. Nevertheless, only few studies evaluated the performance of hydrological drought forecasts, e.g. forecast of deficit volumes in river flow, or duration of deficits. The objective of this study, therefore, was to analyse the skill and robustness of meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale (the Ter and Llobregat rivers in Catalonia, Spain), rather than at a continental or global scale. Meteorological droughts were forecasted using downscaled (5 km) probabilistic seasonal weather reforecasts (ECMWF-SEAS4). These downscaled data were also used to drive the hydrological model (EFAS-LISFLOOD) to produce hydrological drought forecasts, which were derived from time series of simulated streamflow data. This resulted in seasonal hydro-meteorological reforecasts with a lead time up to 7 months, for the time period 2002-2010. These monthly reforecasts were compared to two datasets: 1) droughts derived from a proxy for observed data, including gridded precipitation data and streamflow simulated by the LISFLOOD model; and 2) droughts derived from in situ observed precipitation and streamflow. Results show that the skill of hydrological drought forecasts is higher than the climatology, up to 3-4 months lead time. On the contrary, meteorological drought forecasts, analysed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), do not show added value for short accumulation times (SPI1 and SPI3). The robustness analysis show that using either a less extreme or a more extreme threshold leads to a large change in forecasting skill, which points at a rather low robustness of the hydrological drought forecasts. Because the skill found in hydrological drought forecasts is higher than the meteorological ones in this case study, the use of hydrological drought forecasts in Catalonia is highly recommended to improve drought risk management. The results of this study have already been implemented by the Catalonian Water Agency to forecast reservoir volumes of two big reservoirs located in the Ter and Llobregat catchments, which supply the majority of water to the Barcelona metropolitan area.</p>