Methods for Constructing a Refined Early-Warning Model for Rainstorm-Induced Waterlogging in Historic and Cultural Districts

Abstract

Against the backdrop of increasingly severe global climate change, the risk of rainstorm-induced waterlogging has become the primary threat to the safety of historic and cultural districts worldwide. This paper focuses on the historic and cultural districts of Beijing, China, and explores techniques and methods for identifying extreme rainstorm warnings in cultural heritage areas. Refined warning and forecasting have become important non-engineering measures to enhance these districts’ waterlogging prevention control and emergency management capabilities. This paper constructs a rainstorm-induced waterlogging risk warning model tailored for Beijing’s historical and cultural districts. This model system encompasses three sets of models: a building waterlogging early-warning model, a road waterlogging early-warning model, and a public evacuation early-warning model. During the construction of the model, the core concepts and determination methods of “1 h rainfall intensity water logging index” and “the waterlogging risk index in historical and cultural districts” were proposed. The construction and application of the three models take into full account the correlation between rainfall intensity and rainwater accumulation, while incorporating the characteristics of flood resilience in buildings, roads, and the society in districts. This allows for a precise grading of warning levels, leading to the formulation of corresponding warning response measures. Empirical tests have shown that the construction method proposed in this paper is reliable. The innovative results not only provide a new perspective and method for the early-warning of rainstorm-induced waterlogging, but also offer scientific support for emergency planning and response in historical and cultural districts.