METHODOLOGY OF TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS ENTERPRISES STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT MODELING ON THE BASIS OF THE NEURAL NETWORKS

Abstract

The purpose of the study is development of approaches in shaping the strategy of an efficient of international supply process ensuring on the basis of foreign economic activities (FEA) expanded factual indicators analysis of transport and logistics enterprises. The object of research is the cargo flows of foreign economic activity; the subject of the study is the integrated indicators of freight traffic based on the cargo customs declarations data. The research methodology is based on a neural network-clustering algorithm based on the use of self-organizing maps (SOM) of Kohonen. The analytical platform DEDUCTOR Academic version 5.0 of the company BaseGroup_Labs was used as a software environment in this study. The findings of the study is the method of the foreign economic activity traffic flows modeling and their cluster analysis with the use of intelligent systems and analytical platforms. The system analysis of import cargo flows of the customs-brokerage enterprise for 2013-2016 has been carried out. For analytical review was used the database of electronic cargo customs declarations; which filled by the declarants in the MD Declaration program during cargoes customs clearance. Performed clustering based on the use of Kohonen self-organizing maps using the analytical platform DEDUCTOR Academic version 5.0. Proposed algorithm that solves the clusterization problem. For the introduction of integrated estimations of cargo flows a system of indicators; characterizing volumes; cost and filling of the budget has been formed. In order to conduct a complex analysis of the dynamics and interconnection of factors in the formation of clusters; the scale of the level of each of the studied indicators of foreign economic activity (high; medium and low) was introduced. The levels of indicators are formed based on the analysis of the attributes significance obtained in the process of clusterization and the degree of their influence to the formation of one or another cluster. Depending on the FEA of the partner-company country entry into the cluster with certain characteristics; based on the analysis results; enterprise may improve existing or develop new comprehensive strategy of transport and logistics activities development by chosen directions. The dynamics of the indicators change and their interaction provides the subjects of the database to analyze the ways of developing the company's capabilities in order to increase the competitive areas of foreign economic activity. Changing the rates of customs value; volumes; etc.; requires an analysis of the reasons; as well as the identification and inclusion in the system of risk management of individual areas. The scientific originality is in representation of a multi-stage algorithm that supports decision-making in the form of a strategy that ensures efficient process of international supplies based on the analysis of the extended actual indicators of transport and logistics activities of enterprises; derived from the database of electronic cargo customs declarations filled by the declarants during the goods customs clearance. The practical value. The analysis of the initial data of the enterprise’s activity based on the proposed approach allows the company to decide on the selection of promising international directions of trade relations development; transport communications and to formulate strategies for the competitiveness of the Ukrainian economy.