Methodology for Predictive Estimation of Specific Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Traffic Flows

Abstract

A methodology for estimating specific (per unit of transport work) greenhouse gas emissions by traffic flows on certain sections of the road network is presented and its approbation is carried out. The main factors for reducing specific (per unit of transport work) greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by traffic flows when considering different sections of the road network, provided that the composition of the traffic flow by type of vehicle, type of fuel (energy) used and environmental class of the vehicle, passenger capacity and carrying capacity of specific vehicles does not change, is the length of the road network section, the number of traffic lanes, the average speed and traffic intensity, which are affected by the presence of public transport routes on them, traffic light regulation. Reduction of specific greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by traffic flows on sections of the road network in the foreseeable future will be achieved by increasing the share of electric vehicles powered by traction batteries and fuel cells powered by hydrogen in the vehicle traffic flow. It is expected that in the composition of traffic flows on the road network in 2054 there will be 20% of such vehicles in the composition of cars, trucks - about 10% and buses - 30%.