METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING MACROECONOMIC LIMITATIONS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

Abstract

The subject of this article is the methodology of macroeconomic modeling of scientific and technological progress from the point of view, which is an alternative to the modern paradigm of unlimited potential for economic efficiency.The research is based on the general scientific method of transition from simple to complex. As a starting point, the general laws of scientific and technical progress are selected, independent of individual economic factors. The analysis of long-term economic dynamics is based on the model of limited scientific and technological progress (LSTP-model), first proposed in this article. During the simulation, it is shown that even with infinite resources directed to the R&D sector, the rate of STP has its limit. In this connection, the conclusion is formulated that not only the volume and quality of resources in the R&D sector, but also the duration of their use are important for technological development.The methodology used in the article implements the general scientific principle of correspondence. It is shown that: 1) the classical models of unlimited STP are the limiting case of one of the proposed equations; 2) traditional production functions proved to be the limiting case of the proposed production function with restrictions on maximum product efficiency and minimum efficiency of production factors.A feature of the study is a multivariate approach - consideration and comparative analysis of possible macroeconomic functions and equations of dynamics. Based on this approach, functions and equations were determined that describe the unevenness of economic development, fluctuations in the rate of growth of efficiency, and endogenous waves of STP. It is shown that the new indicators (the potential for increasing efficiency, the sufficiency index of the STP factor) and the functions made up of them allow us to adequately analyze the increasingly complex aspects of scientific and technological progress. A function of exogenous dynamics reflecting the exogenous effect on STP is proposed. An analysis of this function made it possible to adequately describe the historical dynamics of various economic systems that differ in the balance of positive and negative exogenous factors.The general laws of STP are modeled using complex (including implicit) functions. Depending on the specifics of the process under study, complex functions of higher orders can be applied. From a mathematical point of view, the presented equations of dynamics are classified as ordinary autonomous first-order differential equations. Such a mathematical apparatus made it possible to demonstrate the need to observe the general scientific principle of the homogeneity of time. It is shown that limited scientific and technological progress can be described using the utility function.