METHODOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR THE STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF SHADOW FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

Concealment of income and tax evasion is currently a global problem. The globalization of the economy and the liberalization of the international cash flow take shadow financial flows beyond individual countries, giving them global significance. The article is devoted to the study of the impact of the shadow economy on the indicators of the economic development of the country. The paper hypothesizes the impact of shadow activities at all stages of the resources' production and redistribution, financial stability, and independence of the country, the budget revenues. The article presents a comparative analysis of the dynamics of indicators of the country's economic development and the level of shadowing of the economy. The choice of indicators of economic development of the country substantiates the feasibility of using the Maastricht criteria as target indicators of development of candidate countries for EU accession, which include inflation, interest rates, public debt, budget deficits, and exchange rates. Based on the comparative analysis, it was concluded that there is no direct relationship between the level of the shadow economy and the amount of public debt, the budget deficit, the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar, and the discount rate. At the same time, the negative impact of the shadow economy on inflation in the country was confirmed. In the paper, multiple regression coefficients which confirmed the conclusions made at the level of statistical significance of 5% were determined. The paper proves the negative impact of shadow financial transactions on the level of the country's GDP. It is concluded that it is expedient to revise the existing key vectors of the state policy to combat shadowing and the tools of state regulation of the economy by influencing the most sensitive to changes in the level of shadowing indicators of economic development. It is substantiated that the correspondence of the vector of state influence on the economic development of the country to the realities of the functioning of the official and shadow sectors of the economy is a driving force capable of influencing the efficiency and effectiveness of public administration processes.