METHODOLOGICAL BASIS FOR THE USE OF MARKOV PROCESSES FOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN SYSTEMS «MAN–MACHINE–ENVIRONMENT»

Abstract

Introduction. For today there are about a hundred high-quality, quantitative and combined risks evaluation techniques, but none of them is suitable for use in the field of occupational healthy and safety since it does not take into account the dynamic nature of the random hybrid influence on the employee of dangerous and harmful productive factors within "man-machine-environment" systems. For a description of the actual process of hybrid influence of dangers on a employee, it is necessary to use a special subclass of Markov processes with drift, the use of which for risk evaluation in the field of occupational healthy and safety is still unknown.
 Purpose. Development of methodological bases for application of Markov processes with drift to evaluate the risks of occupational dangers origin.
 Methods. A special method of quantitative analysis of complex systems - Markov analysis was used to simulate the random processes of negative influence of dangers on the employee.
 Results. A special subclass of Markov processes with drift for the possibility of simulation the hybrid nature of the influence on the employee of dangerous and harmful productive factors was first substantiated and proposed for the risks evaluation procedure in "man-machine-environment" systems. A system of differential equations and limit conditions for finding the limit distribution of the random process probabilities of occupational dangers origin in "man - machine - environment" systems was obtained.
 Conclusions. The limit distribution of the random process probabilities of occupational dangers origin in "man - machine - environment" systems was determined limiting and expressions for the determination of a number of key indicators that can be used to evaluate the risks level of occupational dangers origin were obtained. It is advisable to develop the further research in the direction of the possibilities of realization of the proposed modeling scheme within combination of analytical approach and simulation modeling.