Abstract
Methodic basis of ensemble hydrological forecasts and possibilities of their application for water resources system management have been considered. The main features of the ensemble forecasting system structure and methods of obtaining and usage of supplemental information have been described. Methods of the ensemble hydrological forecasts quality and uncertainty assessment have been stated. World experience in practical application of the ensemble forecasting methods for short-term hydrological forecast has been presented. Approaches and results of the ensemble forecasting ideas use for long-term forecasting of spring floods in Russia has been described.
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