Abstract
The purpose of the research is to develop methodological bases and principles for assessing the socio-demographic (including migration) consequences of man-made disasters. A method of rapid assessment of possible outgoing migration flows that may occur in the event of a man-made emergency of various scales is proposed. The initial data for this method are quantitative statistical register data on housing stock and population, as well as operational data on the scale of destruction obtained using contactless methods of information collection. The author summarizes the legal acts regulating the work on prevention and elimination of consequences of man-made and other emergencies in Russia, as well as establishing the principles for assessing their consequences. The author proposes a rearrangement of the set of consequences of man-made disasters, including three main directions of the impact of emergency situations on various spheres: demographic (including damage to life and health, as well as the migration component), socio-economic, and natural and environmental. Indicators reflecting the consequences of the disaster have been developed for each of the
Highlights
A man-made disaster is a disaster caused by a failure in the operation of technical systems, which caused an accident at an industrial complex, energy, and transport facility (Ismagilov, 2010: 184)
The topic of risk-taking of industrial facilities and technical systems is becoming more relevant, and, due to their steady impact on the natural system, it is about the formation of a socio-technogenicnatural system (Bagrova, Bokov, Mazinov, 2012: 9), indicating the relationship of three subsystems, within which interrelated biological, biochemical, physical-chemical, social and technical processes operate (Arbeláez-Campillo, & Rojas-Bahamon, 2020)
This proposal will simplify the assessment methodology by eliminating the need to measure the frequency of equipment failures and get only a set of scenarios for emergency situations
Summary
A man-made disaster is a disaster caused by a failure in the operation of technical systems, which caused an accident at an industrial complex, energy, and transport facility (Ismagilov, 2010: 184). A similar criterion is put forward in the international register of disasters, where a natural disaster is defined as "a situation or event that exceeds local capacity that requires a request for external assistance at the national or international level" or "an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes great damage, destruction and human suffering" (EM-DAT https://emdat.be/Glossary). This approach is intended to define catastrophes in General, without considering the specifics of the sphere of their occurrence: natural or technological. A man-made disaster is the cause and determines the current man-made emergency
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