Abstract
In China, the Passenger Dedicated Line(PDL) is the line of freight and passenger transport separation and mainly based on passenger transportation. Trains usually reach more than 200km/h on it. The forecast of new PDL passenger volume is the fundamental work of railway construction. It determines the station level and standards. Because of PDL construction started late in China, and,lacking of historical data, it's difficult to find scientific, reliable, simple methods to forecast it. This paper analyses the influencial factors of the new PDL passenger volume. Based on general volume, it considers the increasing and the sharing passenger volume, the prediction models are put forward. Then, taking Siping-Changchun as an example, the paper forecasts the PDL passenger volume and analyzes the results of prediction. At last it reaches the conclusion.
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