Method for Identifying Global Structural Risk Bottleneck of Regional Rail Transit Based on Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

The characteristics of multi-standard rail transit systems coexistence of regional rail transit increase the risk probability of rail transit network. At the same time, the interaction between multi-standard systems and the integrity of the rail transit network increase the risk impact area and the risk consequences. Therefore, the risk bottleneck identification for regional rail transit is of great significance to realize targeted protection and optimization of key risk points and effectively reduce the global risk of the transportation system. In view of the fact that the existing risk assessment methods of rail transit network mostly use index fusion, which cannot reflect the global structural risk and cannot effectively evaluate the global risk bottlenecks of the rail transit network, this paper proposes a method for identifying global structural risk bottlenecks of regional rail transit based on sensitivity analysis. First, an assessment index for the global structural risk of the rail transit network is established, and then sensitivity analysis is used to assess the impact of the failure and optimization of station or section on the global structural risk of the rail transit network, so as to provide decision support for the protection and optimization of the rail transit network risk bottlenecks. Finally, the regional rail transit in Chengdu-Chongqing area is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the method.