A Global Dynamic Capacity Risk Assessment and Prediction Method of Regional Rail Transit Network Based on Passenger Flow Monitoring

Abstract

Regional rail transit is a comprehensive rail transit system with multiple standards that is formed to meet the needs of urban agglomeration economic integration. With the continuous development of regional rail transit, the connection between different standards and between stations continues to increase, and the ripple effect of transportation risks is more prominent. Therefore, in order to reduce the impact of transportation risks on the safety of the road network, it is urgent to evaluate and predict the dynamic transportation risks of the regional rail transit network from a global perspective. In response to this problem, this paper proposes a method for evaluating and predicting regional rail transit dynamic capacity risk based on dynamic passenger flow monitoring, and establishes an SVM-based capacity risk assessment and prediction model, and finally takes the rail transit network in Chengdu as an example to verify the effectiveness of this method.