Abstract
The importance and relevance of the development of effective methods for predicting the state of pipeline systems are substantiated. The set of analyzed parameters, containing both deterministic and random components, and being the functions of time is presented as a vector-column. As an indicator of the effectiveness of accident detection, the conditional probabilities of correct detection or omission of a hazard are offered. The formulas and the algorithm of two-alternative detection of emergency situations in pipeline systems are given. It is proposed to use the average risk of forecasting errors, which is the expectation of the average “fee” for the error, as a general indicator of the forecasting efficiency.
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