Abstract
Currently, renewable energy sources and energy storage devices are actively introduced into electric power systems. We developed method to analyze the adequacy of these electric power systems. The method takes into account the uncertainty of electricity generation by wind power plants and the processes of energy storage. The method is based on the Monte Carlo method and allowed to use of long-term meteorological data in open access. The performed experimental research of electrical power system is constructed on the basis of the real technical and meteorological data. The method allows to estimate of effectiveness of introducing generators based on renewable energy sources and energy storages in electric power systems.
Highlights
The modern development of electric power systems (EPS) is characterized by a significant increase in generating capacity with renewable energy sources (RES)
To estimate the power deficit of the generated random states of EPS, the methodology uses a modification of the power shortage estimation model with quadratic power losses in the overhead lines
This model guarantees the uniqueness of the distribution of the power deficit at the nodes of the system and the unambiguity of the calculated reliability indicators
Summary
The modern development of electric power systems (EPS) is characterized by a significant increase in generating capacity with renewable energy sources (RES). In [4], an effective methodology for estimating the balance reliability of EPS, based on the Monte-Carlo method, is presented According to this methodology, at the first stage calculation of values of random variables (maximum possible generating capacity, power handling capacity of overhead line, electrical load) are simulated that characterize some operating state of the EPS. ES power deficit is estimated, and reliability indicators are calculated (probability and mathematical expectation of undersupply of energy) This methodology has proven itself in the long-term planning of EPS and was implemented in the software. For all numbers k guaranties single-valuedness of computed reliability indexes
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