Abstract
A rapid decarbonisation of power systems is underway in order to limit greenhouse gas emissions and meet carbon-reduction targets. Renewable energy is a key ingredient to meet these targets; however, it is important that national power systems still maintain energy security with increasing levels of renewable penetration. The operating potential of renewable generation at times of peak demand (a critical time for power system stress) is not well understood. This study therefore uses a multidecadal dataset of national demand, wind power, and solar power generation to identify the meteorological conditions when peak demand occurs and the contribution of renewables during these events. Wintertime European peak power demand events are associated with high atmospheric pressure over Russia and Scandinavia and are accompanied by lower than average air temperatures and average wind speeds across Europe. When considering power demand extremes net of renewable power production, the associated meteorological conditions are shown to change. There is considerable spatial variability in the dates of national peak demand events and the amount of renewable generation present. Growth in renewable generation has the potential to reduce peak demands. However, these impacts are also not uniform with much larger reductions in peak demand seen in Spain than in central Europe. The reanalysis-derived energy models have allowed recent peak demand events to be put into a long-term context.
Highlights
In order to meet the carbon-reduction targets, such as those outlined within the Paris Agreement, a rapid decarbonisation of national energy systems is required [1]. ere has been a large global uptake of renewable generation in recent years [2]
Anomalously high nearsurface wind speeds are seen over southern Europe and the Mediterranean (Figure 1(b)). ese areas of anomalously high 100 m wind speed are accompanied by anomalously low incoming solar radiation and vice versa (compare Figures 1(b) and 1(c)). is sort of meteorological pattern was established for over half of the peak demand events for Europe as a whole. ree of the ten European peak demand events seemed to fit into a second regime, where there was instead a northerly Arctic influence across Europe with the positions of the low- and high-pressure systems reversed
Discussion and Conclusions is study has used a modelled 39-year dataset of countrylevel demand and wind power and solar power generation to investigate the weather conditions which are present at times of peak loa,d and how this may change with increases in installed renewable generation. e focus of this work is both the European total demand and a set of representative case study countries
Summary
In order to meet the carbon-reduction targets, such as those outlined within the Paris Agreement, a rapid decarbonisation of national energy systems is required [1]. ere has been a large global uptake of renewable generation (i.e., wind power, solar power, and hydropower) in recent years [2]. The corresponding mean sea level pressure (MSLP), 2 m temperature, 100 m wind speed, and surface solar radiation anomaly composites are made for each European country to give an indication of the typical meteorological conditions that are responsible for a peak demand event.
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