Meteorological Conditions Associated with AES/JE Outbreak 2019 in Bihar

Abstract

Analysis of the incidences of AES during 2019 over Bihar brought out the highest incidence of AES cases in June (78.5%) followed by July (12.6%). A similar pattern was found in the number of deaths associated with AES. Maximum incidences were reported from Muzaffarpur (559) and East Champaran (113) districts in north Bihar; and Gaya in south Bihar (72). More than 50% of the incidences and deaths were reported from children up to the age of 5 years; and more than 90% from children up to the age of 10 years indicating high vulnerability of children. Female children were found to be impacted more with 53% of the total incidences and 58% of the total deaths. The highest percentage of AES cases (78.5%) were reported in June followed by July (12.6%). The highest percentage of deaths were reported in June (69.5%) followed by July (19%). An analysis of the incidences of AES cases in the worst affected district (Muzaffarpur) shows a high degree of correlation with the maximum temperature of the past few days. A second-degree polynomial best described the relationship between the mean maximum temperature of the last two days and the incidence of AES cases in Muzaffarpur district (R2 =0.74).