Abstract
Inflation targets: lessons from the Greenspan era. This paper approaches the experience of monetary policy in the Greenspan period and suggests what lessons could be learnt. The adoption of inflation targeting would denote a step backward in the policymaking process in the USA, for, since the 1980s, a distinctive feature is flexibility of response to adjust to unexpected events and changing environments. The Fed was able to exercise an informed judgement in critical situations and this opens the case for the importance of not restraining policymakers’ actions through the adoption of tight rules. Furthermore, that the various experiences with inflation targeting are indisputably huge successes, and that this framework represents the state of the art (therefore nothing else can alternatively be done), remains to be seen.
Highlights
Inflation targets: lessons from the Greenspan era
This paper approaches the experience of monetary policy in the Greenspan period and suggests what lessons could be learnt
The adoption of inflation targeting would denote a step backward in the policymaking process in the USA, for, since the 1980s, a distinctive feature is flexibility of response to adjust to unexpected events and changing environments
Summary
Ao longo da década de 70 e início dos anos 80, mais precisamente entre 1972 e 1982, o desempenho macroeconômico dos Estados Unidos foi bastante precário. O que podemos afirmar é que, até agora, o Fed define sua taxa-meta de juros de curto prazo com base numa “função de reação” do tipo Taylor, mas que não se compromete com o cumprimento de qualquer meta nominal para crescimento do produto, ou do emprego, ou mesmo da inflação. Tal política foi bem-sucedida mesmo sem o Fed ter adotado uma meta explícita de inflação ou uma regra explícita de taxa de juros, à la regra de Taylor (ver Greenspan, 2004). O objetivo deste item é abordar a importância ou não de uma suposta “contração fiscal expansionista” para a performance macroeconômica favorável observada ao longo da década de 90, que seria complementar a, e tão importante quanto, a adoção de uma política monetária expansionista durante o período. Uma agenda de pesquisa interessante e prolífica seria investigar essas “encarnações keynesianas” recentes (tardias?) de Alan Greenspan
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