Melting Arctic sea ice: Implications for nonindigenous species (NIS) spread in the United States

Abstract

This paper estimates the impacts of future Arctic shipping on the risk of terrestrial and aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS) spread to the U.S. east coast from various Asian countries. We consider two components of risk – introduction and establishment. Risk of introduction is based on economic modeling predictions of changes in trade flows from future opening of Arctic shipping. Risk of establishment given successful introduction is based on climate similarities determined by an environmental model. We estimate total NIS spread risk as the product of introduction and establishment risks. Results highlight risk profiles for key U.S. trade partners in Asia and show that NIS spread risk to the U.S. east coast is highest from China and Japan. Shipments from Hong Kong and the Philippines present nominal increased species spread risk to the U.S. given low levels of terrestrial and marine climate similarity and minor expected trade changes between the two regions.