Abstract
This paper evaluates the potential effects of future commercial shipping through the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage on the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS) between Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. We modeled NIS spread risk as a function of two factors: NIS introduction and NIS establishment. The change in risk of NIS introduction from one region to another is based on the expected commodity trade flow between the two regions given Arctic shipping routes. The risk of NIS establishment is based on current marine climate similarities between regions and projected 2030 terrestrial climate similarities. Results indicate that the United States, China, and Japan are at greatest risk for increased terrestrial and marine NIS spread to and from one another given their relatively high levels of trading activity and terrestrial and marine climate similarities. While increased trade between European and Asia-Pacific countries is expected in the future, only Japan has terrestrial climate similar enough to that of European countries to be considered a substantial terrestrial NIS spread risk, while China has the potential to increase the risk of marine NIS species spread in Europe.
Highlights
Arctic sea ice has shrunk by 12% per decade since the late 1970s (Stroeve et al, 2012), a trend that is expected to continue in the coming decades (Comiso, 2012; Stroeve et al, 2012)
Large baseline import volumes imply that even a small percentage change in imports (∆Tm,n) could mean a substantial change in import volume (∆tm,n) and corresponding change in nonindigenous species (NIS) introduction risk
Risk of marine NIS spread to European countries is highest from China (60%), while Japan accounts for only 8% and South Korea only 2% of the expected change in marine NIS spread risk to European countries
Summary
Arctic sea ice has shrunk by 12% per decade since the late 1970s (Stroeve et al, 2012), a trend that is expected to continue in the coming decades (Comiso, 2012; Stroeve et al, 2012). This decline in Arctic ice is likely to allow more frequent use of Arctic sea routes for shipping (Borgerson, 2008; Eguíluz et al, 2016), with fairly reliable yearround use expected by 2030 (Wang and Overland, 2012). The Northern Sea Route reduces the marine distance between Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia by 40% compared to the passage through the Suez Canal
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