Abstract
Melanoma is the main serious skin cancer, due to its high lethality. This study aimed to make projections and analyze melanoma mortality trends in Brazil. Mortality Information System data were utilized for the period 1998-2012, which were projected until 2032, using the age-period-cohort model, with software R. The analysis of trends was made by Joinpoint regression, with 95% confidence interval, estimating the annual percentage change. It was revealed higher amounts of deaths in men for all regions. Brazilian trends presented reductions in men (APC = -0.4; CI95% = -0.6; -0.1; p < 0.01) and in women (APC = -0.8; CI95% = -0.9; -0.7; p < 0.01). The Midwest region presented increases for both sexes, while the Southeast region presented reducing trends for both sexes. In the North, there was stability for men and increases followed by stability in women, while the South presented reductions in men and stability in women; finally, the Northeast revealed one joinpoint per sex, with an increase followed by stability in men, and stability followed by reducing trends in women. The highest rates of the country were found in the South and Southeast regions, however, with reducing trends throughout time. Higher mortality trends in men were associated with later diagnoses in this group.
Highlights
Skin melanoma is a type of cancer that is most incident in more developed regions, least developed locations present, proportionally, higher mortality rates[1,2], as diagnoses are usually made at later stages and these locations do not count with the same availability of resources for treatment[2]
This study focuses on comparing the Brazilian geographic regions, filling gaps in distribution patterns of melanoma mortality and verifying dynamics throughout the years
When evaluating trends and projections for melanoma mortality in Brazil, differences were identified across geographic regions and different patterns were found, which demonstrate the epidemiological diversity of the country
Summary
The highest rates are registered in countries with Caucasian population, while lower rates are commonly found in South American and African countries, where pardos West Africans) and Afro-American populations predominate[3]. For 2015, global data on melanoma revealed incidence rates of approximately 3.5 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants for men and 3.3 for women. The same period presented values of 0.92 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants for men and 0.71 for women[1]. In Brazil, estimates for the year 2015 indicated incidence rates of 3.47 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants for men and 3.07 for women. Mortality rates for the same year were 1.22 deaths per
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