Mehanizam uticaja promene deviznog kursa na inflaciju

Abstract

The implementation of an adequate exchange rate policy inevitably leads us to the pass-through of exchange rate changes on export prices and inflation. During the last decade of 20th century, there was a lot of research done on the pass-through of exchange rate changes from the microeconomic aspect. This approach, known as New Open Economy Macroeconomics, is theoretically grounded mainly on producers' ability to price discriminate in markets for export goods. Consistent with the established theoretical framework, the focus of this research has been directed towards studying the pass-through of exchange rate changes to export prices. Relatively few research papers, also based on theoretical grounds of basically macroeconomic character, have dealt with the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation. This paper observes the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation from the macroeconomic aspect. The starting point of our theoretical consideration of the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation is the well-known Dornbusch's overshooting model. The observation of the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation within the overshooting model allows us to observe two dimensions through which changes in the exchange rate pass through to inflation. The first dimension observes the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes to inflation, whereas the second one observes the deviations of the nominal exchange rate from the equilibrium nominal exchange rate, having simultaneous internal and external equilibrium. The final pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation will depend on the joint influence of both dimensions. Also, the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation will be observed in the countries with a fixed exchange rate system, which so far has not been a common situation in practice. We believe that exchange rate changes pass through to inflation even in a fixed exchange rate system, when a change in the exchange rate is equal to zero, which is manifested in deviations of the nominal exchange rate from the equilibrium exchange rate.