Meet in the Middle: Terrorism and Centrist Party Vote Shares in Legislative Elections

Abstract

AbstractScholars have found that terrorism can influence political behavior in democracies by affecting citizens’ emotions such as anxiety and fear. However, researchers have yet to examine how terrorism affects vote choice cross‐nationally. The few studies that have investigated terrorism's effect on vote choice have only examined single states through case study analysis. While informative, researchers lack an understanding regarding how terrorism influences vote choice cross‐nationally based on the nature of terrorist attacks and the ideology of political parties. Thus, using a unique dataset that incorporates political party ideology, this study examines the effect the number and severity of terrorist attacks have on vote choice in legislative elections in 56 democracies from multiple regions and levels of development from 1975 to 2014. Preliminary results indicate that terrorist attacks are critical events that significantly affect vote choice in the democratic states included in this analysis.