Abstract
The article presents the results of a medium-term forecast of the development of Ukraine's seaports (USP) under pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. It is emphasized that this forecast is an important component of the Industry Development Strategy, as well as a basic element for the development of the Action Plan for the implementation of strategic medium-term development priorities in accordance with the long-term goals. The author carried out a retrospective analysis of the volume of cargo transshipment in Ukrainian seaports, and of selected the indicators on which the forecast model is based, namely: Ukraine's GDP and the volume of world sea freight. The macroeconomic medium-term forecast of Ukraine's GDP for the period up to 2024 was developed by the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and the forecast of the volumes of world sea freight was developed by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Attention is focused on the fact that effective management of the development of seaports in Ukraine depends on the accuracy and reliability of medium-term forecasting. In addition, emphasis is placed on the need to study future trends in the seaports' development, whose foundation is being laid today. For this purpose, the author highlights the economic factors influencing the dynamics of cargo handling in Ukrainian seaports, outlines the global trends influencing the development of global sea freight transportation and operation of seaports, and analyzes various current short-term and medium-term trends in sea freight transportation and functioning of seaports, in particular, in the context of the spread of COVID-19, which affect the seaports' performance. It is proved that the chosen statistical model of forecast calculation is accurate and reliable. The results quoted indicate that the volume of cargo transshipment in Ukrainian seaports for the period up to 2024 will grow in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Emphasized the necessity of substantiation of the recommendations to the current Strategy of the Development of Ukrainian Seaports of Ukraine in view of modern tendencies of the industry's development.
Highlights
Of cargo transshipment in Ukrainian seaports for the period up to 2024 will grow in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
The purpose of this article is the medium-term forecast of cargo handling in Ukraine's seaports (USP) for the period up to 2024, in order to further substantiate the need to improve the mechanism of strategic management of Ukraine's seaports (USP) development in the crisis caused by the spread of COVID-19 and provide recommendations to the Strategy for Ukrainian Sea Ports Development for the period until 2038
Among the external factors that are positive in nature, we have identified the following: the possibility of attracting foreign investment through EU support programs, the introduction of a new form of Public-private partnership (PPP) for Ukraine as a concession in the USP and high export potential of ferrous metals, coal, iron ore concentrate and grain, which contributes to the integration processes of the UPS
Summary
Of cargo transshipment in Ukrainian seaports for the period up to 2024 will grow in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Dealt with the issues of development of transport sector forecasts, especially forecasts of the dynamics of cargo handling in Ukraine's seaports (USP). The dynamics of cargo handling in Ukraine's seaports (USP) is quite ambiguous, this indicator was significantly influenced by both economic processes that can be calculated mathematically, and political and social processes that are difficult to predict and predict their impact on the further development of the industry. The main factors influencing the volume of cargo handling in the USP are primarily economic in nature. They are divided into internal and external, and have a positive and negative impact
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