Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province

Abstract

Increasing energy efficiency and reliability of power grids is becoming an essential part of grid energy management. Accurately predicting load demand is one of the most important responsibilities of any power utility. This paper focuses on medium term load forecasting for the Moroccan province of Taroudannt using historical monthly load data for five years (2018-2022), temperature and wind speed. This study is the first of its kind in Morocco, particularly within the province of Taroudannt. The main objective is to contribute to the improvement of energy efficiency in the Souss Massa region. To forecast consumed energy, the fuzzy logic approach is used. Three different models are developed, considering three defuzzification methods, namely Centroid, Bisector and smallest of maximum (SOM). The model is tested using data from the year 2022. The simulation results show that the SOM prediction values are less precise, with a mean error of 13 %. In contrast, the other two methods generate the more reasonable and satisfactory values which are closer to the actual load, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 8.5 %. The result obtained demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of accurately forecasting future load for Taroudannt province.