Cost and Energy Efficiency Study of an ARIMA Forecast Model Using HOMER Pro

Abstract

The rapid adoption of wind power in the power system requires improved short-term wind forecasting for transmission system parameters to permit the power system to be balanced having fewer stored capacities. Wind speed variability is frequently studied using time series analysis methods. A series of monitoring events that are in a sequential hierarchy is called a time series. Cost and energy efficiency study is important because Energy efficiency includes characteristics such as impact of reduction in climate change, improvement in indoor conditions, reduction in air pollution to improve health condition, betterment in energy security and cost determination includes cost effectiveness for energy consumers. The HOMER is nothing but a power optimization model which make the ability to test and design both the grid and off grid power systems simpler. A system which includes traditional generators, cogeneration, hydro power, wind turbines, batteries, solar PV, biomass, fuel cells and different types of inputs is termed as hybrid and can be simulated by HOMER. The main challenges for the power engineers in finding energy efficiency and suitable cost are to select the right sources of energy, then what magnitude of energy sources should be considered and how to measure and ensure the persistence of energy efficiency savings. HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms make it easier to evaluate the many possible system configurations which helps to overcome the challenges. This paper consists of two sections. The Sect. 1 represents the statistical method based on the statistical method is described based on forecasting future wind speed data using historical observations. The paper discusses an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for short-term wind speed prediction of a specific location. This method was used to predict a variety of problems, including short-term wind Speed forecasts. The prediction accuracy of the model considers the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The second section looks at the energy efficiency of two renewable energy systems, one with an AC natural gas generator and one with an isolated AC diesel generator. The model system, which includes PV, batteries, a wind turbine, and a converter system, was taken into account. In this paper the best option in energy efficiency has been calculated using HOMER and helps to design the suitable cost efficient and environment friendly model for the Jafrabad, Gujrat location. To find the best possible system combination and to overcome all the challenges faced by the engineers, two different cases of system configuration have been constructed. In case 1 gas generator is taken which is environment friendly whereas in case 2 diesel generator is taken which is hazardous to environment. After wind prediction has been done using ARIMA in this paper, predicted wind data has been fed to two cases as inputs of wind turbine in HOMER which find the cost of energy (COE) for both the cases.