Medium Term Climate Change Effects on Millet Yields in Gulu District, Northern Uganda

Abstract

Climate change is expected to adversely affect crop yields and livelihoods of agro-dependent societies, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there remain gaps on the effects of expected regional climatic changes on key food security crops. This study assessed the projected climatic conditions and expected changes in millet yields for Paicho Sub County (S/C) in Gulu District up to the year 2033 using a cross sectional study design. To determine future climatic conditions, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used based on projected conditions at a 50 km spatial resolution while millet yields were modelled using Penman Grindley soil moisture balance model. PRECIS projected changes for 2033 reveal a strong and significant decrease in rainfall (p< 0.05). This is likely to decrease millet yields by 2.6% below the average current yields of 1.8 tons per hectare per year under business-as-usual scenario. The finding indicates a need for improved millet varieties that can survive under changed climatic conditions