Abstract
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
Highlights
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise
The modified and extended WHS dataset[32] comprises 159 data entries that represent inscribed WHS (49) along with their serial nominations (110) located in the Mediterranean Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), which is defined as all land with an elevation of up to 10 m in hydrological connection to the sea[33]
The data comprise attributes adopted from the original dataset and newly added attributes
Summary
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. As the risk of coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion increases with sealevel rise (SLR)[7], a considerable number of coastal WHS will gradually be exposed to these hazards in the future[7,8], threatening the OUV of affected sites[9,10,11,12] and potentially leading to losses in economic revenue as WHS are popular tourist destinations[12,13] This is true for the Mediterranean region as several ancient civilisations have developed in the region[4,6,14], resulting in a high concentration of cultural WHS in coastal locations. None of the above-mentioned studies assessed the risks of coastal flooding due to extreme sea levels (ESL) or to coastal erosion due to SLR
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