Mechanistic models for wind dispersal

Abstract

The growing need for ecological forecasts of, for example, species migration, has increased interest in developing mechanistic models for wind dispersal of seeds, pollen and spores. Analytical models are only able to predict mean dispersal distances, whereas sophisticated trajectory simulation models are able to incorporate rare wind conditions causing long-distance dispersal and are therefore preferable. Despite the rapid development of mechanistic dispersal models, only a few studies have focused on comparing the performance of the models. To assess the level of model complexity needed, attention should be paid to model comparisons and the sensitivity of the predictions to model complexity. In addition to studying the movement of airborne particles, future modelling work should also focus on the processes of particle release and deposition.