Abstract
A measurement of global trade rule uncertainty (TRU) is developed by performing textual data mining on global media reports and trade remedy cases. Spikes in TRU are connected with major events that result in uncertainty in trade rules. The empirical results reveal that TRU has instantaneous effect to energy and agricultural prices, a delayed effect on nonferrous and metal prices, a continuous effect on sugar prices in Chinese commodity markets, and no significant impacts on US commodities. Our work not only contributes to extending measurements of uncertainty but also can help quantify the impacts of uncertainty on the real economy.
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