Measuring the Structure of a Technology System for Directing Technological Transition.

Abstract

Technological advancements have generated a “techno‐sphere” within which all humans live. However, the capacity to direct technology development lags far behind technology development itself. This study deciphers the structural characteristics of a technology system using three pairs of features: systemicity and complexity (scalar), centrality and diversity (structural), and adaptability and inertia (structural); and at micro‐, meso‐, and macrolevels. By applying this approach in Chinese agricultural and water technology systems in the Yellow River Region and the Yangtze River Region from the beginning of agriculture in ≈8000 BC to the end of preindustrial agriculture in 1911, it is found that there exist trade‐off relationships between the centrality and diversity of a technology system, there exist alternative dominations of adaptivity and inertia in development of a technology system, and there exist time‐lag phenomena of change in a technology system between mesolevel and macrolevel. It is also identified that a larger‐scale, more diverse and adaptive technology system is observed in the Yellow River Region whereas the technology system in the Yangtze River Region is more rapidly expanding in scale and mainly dominated by inertia. These discoveries will assist increasing the capacity of managing and directing technological transition in future.