Abstract
Forest biomass is an important resource for producing bioenergy and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The State of Michigan in the United States (U.S.) is one region recognized for its high potential of supplying forest biomass; however, the long-term availability of timber harvests and the associated harvest residues from this area has not been fully explored. In this study time trend analyses was employed for long term timber assessment and developed mathematical models for harvest residue estimation, as well as the implications of use for ethanol. The GHG savings potential of ethanol over gasoline was also modeled. The methods were applied in Michigan under scenarios of different harvest solutions, harvest types, transportation distances, conversion technologies, and higher heating values over a 50-year period. Our results indicate that the study region has the potential to supply 0.75–1.4 Megatonnes (Mt) dry timber annually and less than 0.05 Mt of dry residue produced from these harvests. This amount of forest biomass could generate 0.15–1.01 Mt of ethanol, which contains 0.68–17.32 GJ of energy. The substitution of ethanol for gasoline as transportation fuel has potential to reduce emissions by 0.043–1.09 Mt CO2eq annually. The developed method is generalizable in other similar regions of different countries for bioenergy related analyses.
Highlights
In the United States (U.S.), transportation accounts for 69.8% of U.S petroleum consumption [1]and 27% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2013
It is clear that timber is the major source of forest biomass and the availability of it increases steady in the foreseeable future
When compared to the volume an accounting framework and applied it to a 10‐year (1999–2008) projection of the State Forest estimation methods that are developed in this study, the 1998–1999 Silvicultural Analysis established an inventory in Michigan [32]
Summary
In the United States (U.S.), transportation accounts for 69.8% of U.S petroleum consumption [1]. The estimates of feedstock availability suffer substantial uncertainties [12,13], such as the landowners’ willingness and acceptance to harvest [14,15,16], the accessible with roads to harvest [17], the economic performance of feedstock supply chain (consisting of feedstock harvesting, transportation, and storage, etc.), as well as the delivered feedstock price [9,18] All of these constraints should be considered when approximating long term biomass availability and estimating the corresponding biofuels potential. Winchester and Reilly [27] assessed the contribution of biomass to emissions mitigation (16% less in basic policy case than the reference case) under a global climate policy In view of these studies, it is found that prior published research lacks a comprehensive study approximating long-term forest biomass availability and the associated uncertainties in the State of Michigan. The potential forest biomass utilization for ethanol production and GHG reduction were examined using the developed methods
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