Measuring the impact of economic variables on crime in the Kurdistan Region-Iraq for the period (2006-2022)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of effect of some macroeconomic variables represented by (unemployment, inflation, poverty rate, average per capita income, and foreign direct investment) on crime in the Kurdistan Region-Iraq for the period (2006-2022).The research methodology was represent by using autoregressive distributed slowing (ARDL) models. The results of estimating relationship showed that all economic variables have significant effects on the crime rate in the long-term and the most influential of these variables is the unemployment rate, followed by the poverty rate, then the inflation rate, and foreign investment Direct, and finally average per capita income. The results of the dynamic analysis of crime rates also showed that inflation is one of the variables that contribute to interpreting the variation in crime rates in the Kurdistan Region in the long term, followed by foreign direct investment. Therefore, the occurrence of any shock a surprise in these two variables will greatly affect the crime rate