Measuring ‘state-diffusion’ in post-conflict authoritarian Syria evidence from the 2021 public opinion survey

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Syrian conflict was characterized by intense political contestation and violent clashes among various actors with contrasting views of statehood, a phenomenon termed ‘state-diffusion’. Within this landscape, Islamists, Kurdish separatists, and Ba'thists embody distinct perceptions of the Syrian state and nation. This study aims to measure the extent of “state-diffusion” in post-conflict Syria by exploring the outcomes of an independent public opinion survey. Specifically, it focuses on Syrians’ acceptance/rejection of the Assad regime by comparing regions that witnessed significant conflict-induced leadership changes with those that did not. The results reveal that regions under opposition’s governance exhibit a higher tendency towards ‘state-diffusion’; indicating a leaning towards rejecting the Syrian state-building and national unity initiated by the Assad regime. This rejection seemingly stems from the emergence of an alternative state and nation distinct from the existing Syrian nation-state. However, Assad’s legitimacy was more likely to be recognized in regions where the regime regained control after the conflict, perhaps due to their bitter experience of the devastating war and prolonged political turmoil. Thus, the ‘victory’ of the Assad regime does not necessarily promise the end of the conflict. Syrians are having a difficult time accommodating the resurgence of ‘Suriyya al-Asad’ or ‘Authoritarian Conflict Management’, leaving concerns about the future of political stability.