Measuring Gross Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Forest Fires in the Abrace o Pantanal Project Area

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the impact of the Abrace o Pantanal (Embrace the Pantanal) project on reducing carbon dioxide emissions caused by forest fires in the Pantanal biome in Brazil. The project consists of early detection and monitoring of wildfires using high-resolution cameras and satellite data, aided by the Pantera platform, which facilitates communication and the mobilization of firefighting brigades. The project covers 2.5 million hectares of the Pantanal biome, with five cameras installed in the Serra do Amolar region, an area severely affected by wildfires in 2020. To measure the project’s impact on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, we used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines to calculate gross emissions from forest fires. We also analyzed burned area per year and land cover in the project area from 2016 to 2020 using MapBiomas Fire Collection 1 and Land Use and Land Cover Maps (Collection 6) from Mapbiomas. Our results show that the project reduced burned areas and emissions from fires, with highly discrepant results in 2020 due to catastrophic fires. To verify the concrete impacts of the project, we propose measuring the number of fire outbreaks detected, conducting interviews with firefighters, and comparing the results from 2021 to 2025 with the previous period. The average burned area and carbon dioxide emissions from 2016 to 2020 will be a reference value. Nevertheless, other factors may also affect the frequency and intensity of forest fires, such as climate change, demographic changes, and regulatory and political pressure. Therefore, it is impossible to establish a strict causal relationship between the project and the reduction of burned areas and emissions. In conclusion, the Abrace o Pantanal project has shown promising results in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from forest fires in the Pantanal biome. Continued monitoring and evaluation of the project’s impact is crucial to understanding the effectiveness of early detection and firefighting measures in preserving the Pantanal’s biodiversity and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Community empowerment (through the appropriation of the technology) has played a major role in the development of the project and its overall impact.