Measuring Geographic Opportunity for Higher Education in US Metropolitan Areas

Abstract

AbstractResearch demonstrates that students who live closer to postsecondary institutions are more likely to attend college. Yet many communities offer few or no postsecondary options. In this study, we expand on prior research on the geographic distribution of postsecondary opportunity by developing a finer-grained measure that accounts for both the variety and density of college options in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Our estimates use several decay functions to measure the distance-weighted characteristics of institutions, allowing us to cross-validate different approaches and identify the most appropriate model to inform future analyses of geographic opportunity. The results of the cross-validation indicate that both the type of geographic measure used and the penalty in the inverse distance weighting function result in substantively different model fit. We find that each of the measures used in a spatial model—enrollment size, tuition, and net price—has a positive and statistically significant relationship with postsecondary enrollment at the MSA level, indicating the continuing importance of geographic opportunity for college attendance.