Abstract
One of the economic variables used in economic policies to achieve economic stability is the exchange rate. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of changes in exchange rates of the Iraqi dinar on Some macroeconomic variables during the period (1990-2021). The study used a descriptive and analytical approach based on time series data, employing models (DLOS, FMOLS, CCR, ARDL) to prove the impact of the exchange rate on GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and Iraqi exports. Finally, the study concluded that there is a positive relationship between the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and GDP, implying that the exchange rate provides for economic growth and that there is a negative relationship between the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and the rate of inflation in Iraq, implying that the exchange rate aids in the reduction of inflation rates in Iraq. Furthermore, the exchange rate had no effect on unemployment rates, i.e., the change in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar had no effect on reducing the percentage of people who are unemployed. The econometrics analysis also found that the impact of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate in Iraq was negative and did not contribute to an increase in total exports, which is consistent with the reality of the Iraqi economy because foreign trade in Iraq suffers from a major structural imbalance represented by the control of crude oil as a raw material on more than (٪95) of its exports, so oil prices are unaffected by the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar. According to the study, one of the most essential ways to achieve genuine exchange rate stability and increase the link between the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables is to pursue an economic diversification policy.
Published Version
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