Measurement and prediction of land use conflict in an opencast mining area

Abstract

Opencast coal mining can result in a large-scale land destruction. Due to the diversity of land use and the complexity of land use structure, there are severe conflicts in the production-living-ecology space in large-scale opencast coal mine areas, resulting in various degrees of impacts on land use, human settlements and ecological stability of the mining area. However, relevant research on land use conflicts considering production-living-ecology space in large-scale opencast coal mine area is insufficient, especially in terms of predicting these conflicts. In this study, based on the concept of production-living-ecology space, the CLUE-S model and Markov model were used to measure the current level of land use conflict in Pingshuo opencast coal mining area in Shanxi Province of China. Moreover, land use conditions were simulated in Pingshuo mining area, and the potential land use conflicts in the future were predicted. Based on the prediction in the natural development mode of land use conflict in Pingshuo mining area in 2025, the causes and mitigation measures of land use conflicts were discussed. The level of land use conflict was mild out of control in 2015, most of the values were still within the controllable range. The level of land use conflicts would increase significantly from 2015 to 2025. In the mild out-of-control zone, the dominant land use type would be transformed from ecological production space, living space and industrial production space in 2015 to ecological space in 2025. In the severe out of control zone, conflicts in living space would have a significant increase. In order to mitigate land use conflict, optimization of “production-living-ecology” space planning, village relocation and rural revitalization, and land reclamation measures were proposed. This research has important theoretical and practical significance for enriching the relevant theories of land use conflicts and improving the efficiency of land management in mining areas.