Maxent Predictive Species Distribution Models and Model Accuracy Assessment for Two Species of Psilochalcis Kieffer (Hymenoptera: Chalcididae) Occurring in the Eastern Great Basin of Utah, USA

Abstract

Two species of Psilochalcis wasps (P. minuta and P. quadratis) were recently described from Utah’s eastern Great Basin. The extent of their known distributions is extremely limited, based on few data points. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) using Maxent modeling software for each Psilochalcis species to identify areas of probable suitable habitat for targeted collecting to improve our knowledge of their distributions. We used six occurrence data points for P. minuta and eight occurrence data points for P. quadratis, along with ten environmental variables as inputs into the Maxent modeling software. Model-predicted areas with a potential suitable habitat value greater than 0.69 were mapped using ArcGIS Pro to help select locations for model accuracy assessment. Employing Malaise traps, eighteen sites were sampled to evaluate each SDM’s ability to predict the occurrence of Psilochalcis species. Psilochalcis minuta occurred at eight of nine juniper-dominated sample sites that were predicted as having high suitability by the model for this species. Likewise, P. quadratis occurred at two of four cheatgrass-dominated sample sites predicted by the model. Psilochalcis minuta occurred at three of nine sampled sites that were not predicted by the model, and P. quadratis occurred at seven of fourteen non-predicted sites. The Maxent SDM results yielded an AUC value of 0.70 and p-value of 0.02 for P. minuta and 0.68 and 0.02. for P. quadratis. These results were reflected in our model accuracy assessment. Of the selected environmental variables, aspect, historic fire disturbance, and elevation yielded the greatest percent contributions to both species’ models. Sympatric distributions were observed for P. minuta and P. quadratis. Elevation, vegetation type, NDVI, and soil type are the most important environmental variables in differentiating areas of optimal suitable habitat for the two species.