MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Kaiyang Chen,Bo Wang,Chen Chen,Guoying Zhou

doi:10.3390/plants11050670

Abstract

As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country and is mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead to the extinction of P. filicula. To understand the potential spatial distribution of P. filicula in future global warming scenarios, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in its suitable habitat that would occur by 2050 and 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and five global climate models. The results showed that the QTP currently contains a suitable habitat for P. filicula and will continue to do so in the future. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat area would increase by 2050 but shrink slightly by 2070, with an average reduction of 2.7%. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of unsuitable habitat would expand by an average of 54.65% and 68.20% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. The changes in the area of suitable habitat under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070. Under these two moderate RCPs, the total suitable area in 2070 would be greater than that in 2050. The top three environmental factors impacting the habitat distribution were altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) and annual temperature range (BIO7). The cumulative contribution rate of these three factors was as high as 82.8%, indicating that they were the key factors affecting the distribution and adaptability of P. filicula, P. filicula grows well in damp and cold environments. Due to global warming, the QTP will become warmer and drier; thus, the growing area of P. filicula will move toward higher elevations and areas that are humid and cold. These areas are mainly found near the Three-River Region. Future climate change will aggravate the deterioration of the P. filicula habitat and increase the species’ survival risk. This study describes the distribution of P. filicula and provides a basis for the protection of endangered plants in the QTP.

Highlights

Global climate change is a major challenge for humans and ecosystems in the 21st century [1]
RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070
The stability of the MaxEnt model was verified by 100 iterations of the jackknife method, and the prediction accuracy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves

Summary

Introduction

Global climate change is a major challenge for humans and ecosystems in the 21st century [1]. The current concentration of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, has increased by 70% compared to 1970 [2]. Global warming is expected to continue, with the average Earth’s surface temperature rising by 0.3–4.5 ◦ C degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to 1986 to 2005 [3,4]. Rising average temperatures pose a serious threat to the sustainability of global ecosystems and have already altered the biodiversity of landscapes worldwide [5,6]. Many studies have shown that species move to higher elevations or latitudes in response to a warming climate [7–9]. Species’ climatic niches may change more slowly than climate change [10]. If future climate warming leads to the

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