MaxEnt modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Lebrunia bushaie Staner (Clusiaceae) under different climate change scenarios in Democratic Republic of Congo

Abstract

Lebrunia bushaie Staner is an endangered medicinal plant that is endemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In this study, its current and future suitable distribution habitats were assessed using two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL” (Third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in the Global Coupled Configuration 3.1) and MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under twoShared Socioeconomic Pathways (ssp) scenarios, ssp126 and ssp245 at the horizon 2050. Potential habitat predictions for L. bushaie were performed using MaxEnt software. The area under the curve (AUC˃ 0.90) revealed a high level of prediction for the current and future scenarios. Seasonal Temperature (Bio4), and isothermality (Bio3) were the variables with the greatest influence on the distribution of L. bushaie. The current distribution that is highly suitable for this plant corresponds to the habitat in which this species was inventoried. Furthermore, the projected future suitable area of L. bushaie based HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL and MIROC6 is expected to increase under the ssp126 and ssp245 scenarios by 2050.