Mathematical models of truck failures in the North

Abstract

The article studies the failures of 50 KAMAZ trucks operated in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The statistical analysis results of failures of KAMAZ truck parts and assembly units groups which limit its reliability in adverse climatic and road conditions of the North are given. Autocorrelation of the failure time series of the observed groups revealed the presence of a linear trend for every series, and the statistical significance of the linear regression equation parameters was confirmed for all groups, except for the steering. The wear rate in harsh natural and climatic conditions can be estimated in terms of the value of the regression slope. The groups of parts and assembly units were ranked by the values of the regression slope. After the failure time series have been centred, the harmonic analysis was carried out. The significant harmonic components were allocated from the Fourier series to describe the regular change in the failure series. Mathematical models, consisting of equations of linear trend and significant harmonics, approximate the failure time series with an acceptable confidence level, which makes it possible to determine the rhythmological features of vehicle operability changes in extreme conditions of permafrost zone.