Mathematical Modeling of The Annual Average Daily Traffic on South Eastern Nigerian Highways using Environmental and Demographic Factors.

Abstract

In this research, the mathematical model of the annual average daily traffic (AADT) was developed using the environmental and demographic factors which were established based on a 20 – year sample collected from the Federal Ministry of Works and Housing and the Ministries of Budget and Planning. The environmental parameters were obtained using the degree of pavement flooding and pavement condition indices from two (2) selected highways. The demographic factors applied included the gross domestic products, GDP, and the population density, P. Linear and nonlinear regression equations were applied. The resultant of the linear regression equations obtained using the mathematical laboratory software (MATLAB) in the computation of the coefficients of the parameters includes; T = 2.92x104 + 689.57G+ 2.82P, T = 8.23x105 + 0.02G− 0.4P, while the non lonear multiple regression equations includes; ln T = 1.53x104 ln V − 2.54x104 lnD , T = 1.1x106D 0.55 V 0.14 , for Umuahia – Ikot Ekpene expressway and Onitsha – Owerri Road respectively. The values of the coefficients of correlation, R, include (RG = 0.3912, 0.5627, RP = 0.7922, 0.4836, RV = 0.9857, 0.6573, RD = 0.9975, 0.4158) for Umuahia – Ikot Ekpene expressway and Onitsha – Owerri Road respectively. Hence, it can be deduced that the model factor that best fit into the equation for Umuahia – Ikot Ekpene expressway is the flood depth, while that of Onitsha – Owerri road is the volume of potholes. Thus flood depth and volume of potholes are the model parameters necessary for calibration of the AADT in Abia and Anambra states respectively