Mathematical modeling and analysis of the novel Coronavirus using Atangana–Baleanu derivative

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus infection disease is becoming more complex for the humans society by giving death and infected cases throughout the world. Due to this infection, many countries of the world suffers from great economic loss. The researchers around the world are very active to make a plan and policy for its early eradication. The government officials have taken full action for the eradication of this virus using different possible control strategies. It is the first priority of the researchers to develop safe vaccine against this deadly disease to minimize the infection. Different approaches have been made in this regards for its elimination. In this study, we formulate a mathematical epidemic model to analyze the dynamical behavior and transmission patterns of this new pandemic. We consider the environmental viral concentration in the model to better study the disease incidence in a community. Initially, the model is constructed with the derivative of integer-order. The classical epidemic model is then reconstructed with the fractional order operator in the form of Atangana–Baleanu derivative with the nonsingular and nonlocal kernel in order to analyze the dynamics of Coronavirus infection in a better way. A well-known estimation approach is used to estimate model parameters from the COVID-19 cases reported in Saudi Arabia from March 1 till August 20, 2020. After the procedure of parameters estimation, we explore some basic mathematical analysis of the fractional model. The stability results are provided for the disease free case using fractional stability concepts. Further, the uniqueness and existence results will be shown using the Picard–Lendelof approach. Moreover, an efficient numerical scheme has been proposed to obtain the solution of the model numerically. Finally, using the real fitted parameters, we depict many simulation results in order to demonstrate the importance of various model parameters and the memory index on disease dynamics and possible eradication.